WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST • July 27 – August 03, 2026
TLDR
- S&P 500 rose 1.03% to 7,489.72.
- Oil prices fell 5% on easing Middle East tensions.
- $62.6 million net outflow from BTC ETFs.
- VIX declined 14.35% to 15.99, indicating decreased volatility.
Weekly Market Performance
| Asset | Week Open | Week Close | Weekly % | 1M % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Crypto Market Cap | $2.24T | $2.16T | -3.69% | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,413.18 | 7,489.72 | +1.03% | +0.09% |
| Dow Jones | 52,210.08 | 52,485.03 | +0.53% | -0.78% |
| Nasdaq | 24,932.08 | 25,373.85 | +1.77% | -1.78% |
| VIX | 18.67 | 15.99 | -14.35% | -0.99% |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $63,725 | $62,697 | -1.61% | +0.47% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $1,891 | $1,854 | -1.92% | +5.75% |
Macro Highlights
The US and Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market to prop up the yen, with Japan's finance ministry confirming a coordinated yen-buying intervention with the US Treasury on Friday. The move is aimed at curbing the yen's weakness, which has been nearing 40-year lows. (CNBC)
Oil prices fell over 5% on Monday as investors pared geopolitical risk premiums after US President Donald Trump said he had called off a planned strike on Iran, and new talks with Iran would begin on Monday. (CNBC)
AstraZeneca is considering a deal to merge with its US rival Bristol Myers Squibb, in a potential $400 billion megadeal. (CNBC)
OPEC+ nations have agreed to another small increase in their production quotas for September, completing the theoretical revival of supplies halted in 2023. The move is expected to have a limited impact on the market due to export disruptions caused by the Iran and Ukraine wars. (Bloomberg)
Crypto Highlights
Trump Media has sold an additional 2,628 Bitcoin, reducing its holdings to 4,261 BTC, after transferring the cryptocurrency to Crypto.com, bringing the total reported sales over the past seven months to 7,281 BTC. The sale stands as a significant reduction in Trump Media's Bitcoin holdings.
Coldcard's hardware wallet had a 5-year flaw, according to Kraken's security chief, which went undetected for five years, and a suspected 4th wave of Coldcard attacks has resulted in the loss of 389 Bitcoin. The situation stands with users warned to migrate funds due to potential seed-generation risks.
South Korean stablecoin outflows reached $367M in June, marking 18 consecutive months of outflows, as regulators consider tighter oversight of cross-border crypto activity.
Bitcoin has reached a value of $62,000, while the Coinbase premium has been in a negative streak for 77 days, indicating US spot buyers have been less aggressive compared to overseas traders.
BNB Chain is pursuing legal action against a former employee who allegedly used a company tutorial wallet to create a memecoin without authorization or endorsement from the company. The case stands with the company taking action against the former employee.
Cost Basis Distribution and Liquidation Exposure (BTC)
US Spot ETF Flows
| Fund | Weekly Net Flow | Cumulative Inflow | AUM |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC Spot ETF | $-61.5M | +$51,343.0M | $76.29B |
| ETH Spot ETF | +$27.4M | +$11,210.2M | $10.23B |
| SOL Spot ETF | +$2.8M | +$1,147.2M | $0.86B |
Spot ETF Daily Flows — BTC, ETH & SOL
ANALYST INTERPRETATION
1. Positioning & Derivatives Read
The ETF flow data shows a weekly net outflow of $62M for BTC and a net inflow of $27M for ETH, indicating institutional investors are currently favoring Ethereum over Bitcoin. The lack of liquidation data limits our understanding of the long vs short positioning, but the ETF flows suggest a slight bias towards Ethereum. Given the current market conditions and the fact that the S&P 500 ended the week positive while Bitcoin and Ethereum were negative, the market appears to be under-extended on the equity side and over-extended on the crypto side, with long positions in crypto being more exposed going into next week.
2. Key Risks & Levels for Next Week
Long Liquidation Risk: The largest cost basis cluster below spot sits at $61,920 with 110318.78 BTC, and a breach of this level would push $51.6M in open longs underwater, triggering a long liquidation cascade. Watch for spot volume accelerating on the way down as the tell that this risk is playing out.
Short Squeeze Risk: Above the current price, a significant short squeeze level exists at $67,000, where $72.7M in shorts could be squeezed. If the price approaches this level, monitor the options skew for a shift towards calls, indicating increased speculation of a squeeze.
Support Break Risk: The support cluster at $62,612 with 82987.61 BTC is crucial. If this level is breached, it would not only push these longs underwater but also likely accelerate the spot volume downwards, indicating a breakdown in support.
Weekly Market Wrap
The week ended with a 1.03% gain in the S&P 500 driven by a combination of factors, including the Federal Reserve's meeting and the easing of US-Iran tensions, which led to a decline in oil prices and reduced concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq also posted gains, with the Dow rising 0.53% and the Nasdaq increasing 1.77%, as investors weighed the prospects of interest-rate hikes and digested a slew of megacap earnings reports.
The macroeconomic landscape was marked by significant events, including the surprise monetary policy tightening by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which aimed to combat rising inflation risks driven by increasing oil prices. The US Treasury yields rose, driven by TIPS data showing rising real yields, which weighed on non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and challenged the inflation narrative. The VIX, a measure of market volatility, declined 14.35% to 15.99, indicating a decrease in investor uncertainty.
In the crypto markets, Bitcoin and Ethereum posted declines, with Bitcoin falling 1.61% to $62,697 and Ethereum dropping 1.92% to $1,854. The crypto-specific events that shaped the week included the Coldcard exploit, which resulted in a $90 million Bitcoin loss from cold storage, sparking market flight. The suspected 4th Coldcard attack wave, which resulted in the loss of 389 Bitcoin, also weighed on investor sentiment. Additionally, the Trump Media sale of 2,628 BTC to Crypto.com, reducing its holdings to 4,261 BTC, and the CryptoQuant report of 39,600 BTC moved in small transactions, highlighted the ongoing activity in the crypto space.
Looking ahead, the key catalysts that will shape the markets next week include the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act, which could provide regulatory clarity for the crypto industry, and the release of the US PCE inflation data, which will provide insight into the inflation narrative. Additionally, the performance of the US stocks, particularly the megacap earnings reports, will continue to influence the markets. The BIS Project Agorá's settlement of $1 million in tokenized cross-border payments and the European Central Bank's proposal for a digital euro app will also be important developments to watch, as they could provide a boost to the adoption of cryptocurrencies and digital assets.
