WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST • August 03 – August 10, 2026
TLDR
- S&P 500 rose 2.07% to 7,757.64.
- Bitcoin gained 3.91% to $65,148.
- $854M flowed into BTC ETFs this week.
- VIX fell 6.05% to 14.90.
- $8M of BTC perp longs were liquidated.
Weekly Market Performance
| Asset | Week Open | Week Close | Weekly % | 1M % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Crypto Market Cap | $2.16T | $2.22T | +2.93% | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,600.50 | 7,757.64 | +2.07% | +2.41% |
| Dow Jones | 53,178.41 | 54,036.93 | +1.61% | +2.66% |
| Nasdaq | 25,913.90 | 26,690.62 | +3.00% | +1.56% |
| VIX | 15.86 | 14.90 | -6.05% | -0.86% |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $62,697 | $65,148 | +3.91% | +2.11% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $1,854 | $1,924 | +3.76% | +7.61% |
Macro Highlights
The US and Iran have been engaged in a standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, with the US reaffirming its grip on the blockade and turning away 55 ships as talks stall. Iran has promoted a hardline ex-commander as its top security official, shaking up its highest decision-making body on national defense. The situation stands now with Iran saying it's "very close" to a deal with Oman on a new maritime transit route in the Strait of Hormuz, but its conditions must be met. (CNBC)
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has refused to give forward guidance for two straight meetings, citing his dislike for the practice. This move has raised concerns among market participants, who are unsure of the Fed's future policy direction. (Nasdaq)
The global stock rally has extended, with Asian shares tracking Wall Street higher after soft US jobs data eased expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike. The S&P 500 Index closed up 0.62% on Friday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.28%. (Bloomberg)
China's inflation has cooled, with the country's factory-gate inflation easing for the first time since the Iran war broke out in late February. Consumer prices also decelerated, in another sign that cost pressures from the conflict are starting to ease. (Bloomberg)
The US Senate has passed a short-term spending bill to avert a damaging government shutdown weeks before the November midterms, sidestepping President Donald Trump's calls to also enact his border security and immigration priorities. The situation stands now with the bill heading to the House of Representatives for approval, as lawmakers scramble to avoid a government shutdown. (Bloomberg)
Crypto Highlights
Binance saw a record futures trading volume of nearly $58 billion, outweighing spot trading volumes by 7.8 times.
Australia's financial watchdog has suspended Cryptolink's registration for three months, ordering its Bitcoin ATMs offline, following a $56,340 fine over 'basic reporting' failures.
Bitcoin Red Team founder has expressed distress over turning to Chinese AI, as the team has discovered 1,288 critical and high-level vulnerabilities in the Bitcoin ecosystem as of Saturday, highlighting significant security concerns.
The US Senate delayed the vote on advancing the CLARITY Act to September after Senator Thune filed cloture, putting crypto market structure legislation back on track with negotiations ongoing over ethics and stablecoin provisions.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced their best week since April, with $1 billion in inflows, as institutional demand demonstrated renewed momentum, marking their third-strongest showing since October.
Cost Basis Distribution & Liquidation Exposure
BTC
ANALYST INTERPRETATION — BTC
1. Positioning & Derivatives Read
The data indicates that $8M of BTC perp longs were liquidated, while $25M of BTC perp shorts were liquidated, resulting in a long/short ratio of 0.36. This suggests that shorts are more exposed, with more size liquidated on the short side. The ETF flow direction and magnitude show a weekly net flow of $854M into BTC, indicating continued interest in the asset. Given the liquidation exposure clusters, the market is over-extended to the upside, with more size stacked above spot, and longs are more exposed going into next week.
2. Key Risks & Levels for Next Week
Long Liquidation Risk: The largest cost basis cluster below BTC spot sits at $64,686 with 196,842.58 BTC, and a breach of this level would push $44.5M in open longs underwater and into the highest liquidation exposure band in the heatmap. Watch for BTC spot volume accelerating on the way down, not after, as this would be the tell that the risk is playing out.
Short Squeeze Risk: The top supply cluster above BTC spot at $67,452 holds 413,127.81 BTC, and a move above this level could trigger a short squeeze, with $74.4M in short exposure at $65,400. Monitor BTC options skew shifting as this level is approached, as this would indicate increasing fear of a short squeeze.
Support Break Risk: The cost basis cluster at $63,995 holds 87,917.25 BTC, and a break below this level would expose $68.6M in long liquidation risk at $57,600. Look for BTC ETF flow direction to turn negative as this level is breached, indicating a loss of conviction among investors.
ETH
ANALYST INTERPRETATION — ETH
1. Positioning & Derivatives Read
The ETH market saw $245M in weekly net inflows, increasing the cumulative flow to $11.5B and AUM to $10.7B. The long/short ratio ended the week at 0.36, indicating a higher proportion of short positions. With $8M in ETH longs liquidated and $25M in ETH shorts liquidated, the market is under-extended, and the short side is more exposed going into next week. The liquidation exposure clusters in the data show that the short side has more size stacked near ETH spot, with $21.7M, $25.7M, and $119.4M in potential short squeeze levels above the current price.
2. Key Risks & Levels for Next Week
Short Squeeze Risk: The $2,140 level has $21.7M in short exposure, and a breach of this level would push a significant portion of shorts underwater, potentially triggering a short squeeze. Watch for spot volume accelerating on the way up, as this would be a tell that the risk is playing out.
Long Liquidation Risk: The $1,480 level has $74.3M in long liquidation exposure, and a breach of this level would put a substantial portion of longs underwater, potentially triggering a wave of liquidations. A spike in perp liquidations for ETH would confirm that this risk is materializing.
Support Break Risk: The $1,895 level has 1173151.50 ETH in supply, making it a crucial support level for ETH spot. If this level is breached, watch for ETF flow direction to turn negative, as this would indicate that investors are losing confidence in the market.
US Spot ETF Flows
| Fund | Weekly Net Flow | Cumulative Inflow | AUM |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC Spot ETF | +$853.5M | +$52,196.5M | $79.50B |
| ETH Spot ETF | +$244.9M | +$11,455.2M | $10.74B |
| SOL Spot ETF | +$0.1M | +$1,147.4M | $0.87B |
Spot ETF Daily Flows — BTC, ETH & SOL
On-Chain Signals — Bitcoin
| Signal | Week-End | Week Chg | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV Ratio | 1.247 | +2.3% | Fair value zone |
| NUPL | 0.211 | +9.9% | Hope / Fear |
| Exch. Net Flow | +2,420.7 BTC | -51.8% | Net inflows — distribution |
| Exchange Balance (USD) | $215.79B | +2.1% | |
| Perp Funding Rate | +0.00619% | +34.3% | Near-neutral |
| Perp Open Interest | $30.83B | +2.0% | |
| 1M Implied Vol | 31.8% | -1.8% | Low vol environment |
| 25Δ Put/Call Skew | 10.9% | -29.1% | Calls bid — bullish |
| Realized Vol (1W) | 13.2% | -53.1% | Low realized vol |
| DVOL Index | 34.93 | +0.5% |
Amber rows deviate >1.5σ from prior 4-week baseline • data as of 2026-08-09
Realized Vol (1W): 3.9σ below 4-week baseline
1M Implied Vol: 3.0σ below 4-week baseline
Weekly Market Wrap
The defining theme of the week was the notable gains in major US indices, with the S&P 500 rising 2.07% to close at 7,757.64, the Dow Jones increasing 1.61% to 54,036.93, and the Nasdaq surging 3.00% to 26,690.62. The VIX, a measure of market volatility, fell 6.05% to 14.90, indicating a decrease in investor anxiety. These moves were driven by easing US-Iran tensions, with President Donald Trump calling off a planned attack on Iran and stating that talks are Iran's "last chance." Additionally, the US trade deficit dipped in June, and crude oil prices slumped amid talks of a potential US-Iran peace deal. The dollar recovered slightly after a coordinated intervention by the US and Japan to support the yen, and Saudi Aramco and BP reported significant profit increases due to higher oil prices.
The US equities market was driven by specific factors, including the easing of US-Iran tensions and the dip in the US trade deficit. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all closed higher on Tuesday, with the VIX falling 6.44%. Oil prices slumped amid talks of a potential US-Iran peace deal, with crude oil down 5.11%. The dollar recovered slightly after a coordinated intervention by the US and Japan to support the yen. On Wednesday, oil prices moved higher after Yemen's Houthis claimed they had struck a Saudi Arabian oil tanker in the Red Sea. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,757.64, with daily closes ranging from 7,600.50 on Monday to 7,757.64 on Friday.
Bitcoin and Ethereum prices rose 3.91% and 3.76%, respectively, with Bitcoin reaching $65,148 and Ethereum reaching $1,924. The Bitcoin Red Team founder's discovery of 1,288 critical vulnerabilities in the Bitcoin ecosystem as of Saturday sparked concerns about the network's security. Australia's financial watchdog suspended Cryptolink's registration for three months, ordering its Bitcoin ATMs offline, following a $56,340 fine over 'basic reporting' failures. The US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1 billion in inflows in their best week since April, marking renewed institutional demand momentum. The proposed EIP-8363 staking overhaul for Ethereum aims to reduce issuance, but critics argue it could hurt DeFi, decentralization, and institutional adoption. Binance saw a record futures trading volume of nearly $58 billion, outweighing spot trading volumes by almost eight times.
Looking ahead to next week, key catalysts include the US jobs report and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision, both of which will offer insight into the labor market, monetary policy, and the broader economic outlook. In crypto, the US Senate’s September vote on the CLARITY Act could shape the regulatory landscape, while Brazil will implement rules allowing crypto transfers above $10,000 to be held for up to 24 hours to combat fraud. Additionally, USDC’s expansion into the OKX ecosystem through the X Layer launch will broaden its adoption across major blockchains.
