Market Analysis Featured

Market Intelligence 21

Apr 14, 2022 • 3 min read

BTC falls back within its 2022 range after failing to breakout above $45k
High US inflation numbers pushes the BTC-NASDAQ 30-day correlation to an all-time high
Sell pressure linked to profit-taking failed to be absorbed by the BTC market
Large investors accumulated BTC at this week's price lows

Price: $41.1k
Week Open: $43.2k
Week High: $43.8k
Week Low: $39.3k
7-day return: - 4.9%

The US labor department announced this week that US inflation increased more than expected as the month-over-month and year-over-year increases came in at 1.2% & 8.5% respectively
The market is now pricing in a 50 bps rate hike in May & June
News of higher than expected inflation or hawkish statements from central bank officials continue to push risk-on assets lower such as BTC & growth stocks

The 30-day correlation between BTC & the NASDAQ has reached an all-time high of 0.77
The crypto market is currently in a waiting position in view of the unique and rapidly evolving macro-environment

BTC continues to trade within the $37k-$45k range its been in so far in 2022
Price failed to sustain its break above $45k last week and declined back within the 2022 range
Price could rapidly decline to $30k if the $37k support level is broken
Similarly, price could accelerate to $52k if the $45k resistance level is broken

Mild profit-taking in the market

An investor that has held their Bitcoin for less than 155-days is considered a short-term holder (STH)
Realised price is the price at which a Bitcoin was last bought
STH Realised price is the average price at which all STHs have bought their Bitcoin, and is a reliable gauge of long-term price directionality
Price tested the $47k realised price level last week before dropping and resuming its sideway movement as investors realised gains
A sustained break above the STH realised price could signal the start of a sustained uptrend in price

This metric describes the percentage of all BTC transfer volume that was in profit or loss
Average volume returned to profit last week after a regime of losses in 2022
Investors realized profits last week when prices increased to a yearly high of $47k
Up to 58% of all transferred volume was profitable last week
This sell pressure was not absorbed by the market as prices subsequently declined
Historically, sustained periods of volume in profit have lead to bull runs

The yellow line illustrates the total balance of BTC held by addresses holding between 1k & 10k BTC
The black line represents BTC price
In the last month, whale balance has served as a proxy for near-term price action as increases in whale balance have coincided with increases in price and vice versa for declines in whale balance
According to this pattern, we can expect strength in price in the near-term given the spike in whale balance last week