WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST • March 31 – April 07, 2026
Weekly Market Performance
| Asset | Week Open | Week Close | Weekly % | 1M % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Crypto Market Cap | $2.32T | $2.34T | +0.91% | — |
| S&P 500 | 6,528.52 | 6,611.83 | +1.28% | -1.90% |
| Dow Jones | 46,341.51 | 46,669.88 | +0.71% | -1.75% |
| Nasdaq | 21,590.63 | 21,996.34 | +1.88% | -1.75% |
| VIX | 25.25 | 24.17 | -4.28% | -18.04% |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $68,233 | $68,486 | +0.37% | +3.81% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $2,105 | $2,098 | -0.30% | +8.35% |
Macro Highlights
Iran War Escalation Looms: US President Donald Trump threatened to attack Iranian civilian infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. On Monday, Trump reiterated his deadline for Iran to comply, and the situation remains unresolved.
Oil Prices Surge on Iran Tensions: Oil prices have risen sharply in recent days as the conflict between the US and Iran has intensified, with crude oil advancing for a third day on Monday.
Global Markets React to Iran Crisis: Global markets have been volatile in recent days in reaction to the escalating tensions between the US and Iran. Investors are bracing for further uncertainty.
Singapore Unveils Measures to Address War Crisis: The Singapore government has announced a package of measures worth S$1 billion ($778 million) to help households and businesses cope with the economic fallout from the war in Iran. The measures include enhanced support for low-income families and small businesses, as well as initiatives to promote economic growth and stability.
Crypto Highlights
White House Crypto Safe Harbor Proposal: The White House is reviewing a crypto market safe harbor proposal that includes startup, fundraising, and investment contract exemptions for issuers, aiming to provide clarity and regulatory certainty for cryptocurrency issuers and service providers.
Drift Protocol $280M Exploit: Drift Protocol suffered a $280 million attack, potentially qualifying as 'civil negligence', likely carried out by threat actors aligned with North Korea state-affiliated hackers, prompting the company to take action to address the incident and prevent similar exploits in the future. The exploit resulted in a significant loss for Drift Protocol and highlights the ongoing security risks in the crypto space.
Ripple Acquires Hidden Road: Ripple's acquisition of Hidden Road for $1.25B signals a permanent infrastructure shift in the institutional crypto space, with prime brokerages expected to play a crucial role in enforcing traditional finance custody standards, according to the company's actions.
Solana Foundation's STRIDE Security Initiative: The Solana Foundation and Asymmetric Research launched the STRIDE security initiative and a real-time incident-response network to enhance DeFi security amid ongoing attacks, aiming to improve the security and resilience of the Solana ecosystem.
US Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows: US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a significant influx of funds in March, with $1.3 billion in inflows, marking the first monthly gain of 2026, despite the overall net outflows of about $500 million in the first quarter due to weak sentiment amid geopolitical tensions.
US Spot ETF Weekly Flows
| Fund | Weekly Net Flow | Cumulative Inflow | AUM |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC Spot ETF | +$424.2M | +$56,430.7M | $90.26B |
| ETH Spot ETF | +$73.1M | +$11,600.9M | $12.28B |
| SOL Spot ETF | +$1.2M | +$980.6M | $0.80B |
Spot ETF Daily Flows — BTC, ETH & SOL
Crypto Liquidations — Daily Breakdown & Top Assets
On-Chain Signals — Bitcoin
| Signal | Week-End | Week Chg | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV Ratio | 1.300 | +1.0% | Fair value zone |
| NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) | 0.229 | +2.3% | Hope / Fear |
| Exchange Net Flow | +3,428.3 BTC | +241.2% | Net inflows — distribution |
| Exchange Balance (USD) | $208.89B | +3.7% | |
| Perp Funding Rate | -0.00283% | -228.3% | Near-neutral |
| Perp Open Interest | $29.53B | +2.7% | |
| ATM 1M Implied Vol | 46.7% | -6.0% | Moderate vol |
| Realized Vol (1W) | 34.3% | -11.4% | Moderate |
The MVRV Ratio of 1.300 and NUPL of 0.229 suggest the market is in an early bull phase. Perp funding rates are negative, indicating bearish positioning.
Weekly Wrap
The defining theme of the week was the interplay between geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict, and its impact on both macro and crypto markets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ending the week up 1.28% and 1.88%, respectively. The Dow Jones also saw a gain of 0.71%, while the VIX decreased by 4.28%, indicating reduced market volatility. This dynamic was evident in the mixed performance of global markets, which surged on optimism that the US-Iran war may be nearing an end, only to be met with renewed tensions and threats from President Trump.
US indices and major economies performed variably, driven by specific drivers such as US President Trump's speech on the Iran war and the potential for a resolution, which led to a surge in European stock futures and a rally on Wall Street. US markets saw mixed results, with the Dow Jones gaining 0.11% and the S&P 500 declining 0.39% on April 1, while the Nasdaq declined 0.73%. Oil prices fell as traders weighed the potential for a resolution, and gold extended its three-day gain on signals of a possible war resolution. The VIX also decreased, indicating reduced market volatility. European fiscal support for high energy prices remained targeted and temporary, with central banks in the region facing difficult trade-offs.
In crypto markets, Bitcoin and Ethereum ended the week with modest gains and losses, respectively, with Bitcoin up 0.37% at $68,486 and Ethereum down 0.30% at $2,098. Key crypto-specific events, such as Grayscale's head of research Zach Pandl's comments on Bitcoin's quantum challenges shaped the week. The White House's review of a crypto market safe harbor proposal and the Solana Foundation's launch of the STRIDE security initiative also made headlines. On-chain data showed that Bitcoin buyers attempted to push the cryptocurrency above $70,000.
Looking ahead, key catalysts include the potential for a US-Iran war ceasefire, the outcome of the White House's review of the crypto market safe harbor proposal, and the upcoming data on US inflation and job growth.